To sacrifice, or not to sacrifice … that’s a tough question
April 29th, 2008 by WesThere were so many crucial plays and moments in Monday night’s OIA baseball championship game, but one of the more interesting ones had to be Kailua’s man-on-first-and-second, no outs situation in the bottom of the seventh inning.
When the leadoff man got aboard, many people (myself included) wondered if head coach Corey Ishigo would call for a sacrifice bunt to move the winning run into scoring position. When the next guy also reached base, for sure many (myself included) thought it was a sacrifice situation, especially since the guy batting had dropped a successful sac bunt in his previous at-bat.
But there he was, swinging away. He eventually struck out, as did the next batter. Sophomore starter Kahana Neal then got a grounder to third to end the inning unscathed.
Now, on the one hand, some might find it easy to second-guess Ishigo, given the results. As one former high school coach mentioned, “Baseball is about percentages, you gotta play the percentages.” By moving the runner to third, now he can score on a sacrifice fly, or surely a single to the outfield.
As the former coach mentioned, you also draw the infield in, giving you more field to find gaps in for a base hit. I also think it might have put more pressure on the defense, knowing the winning run was only 90 feet away.
But as Ishigo explained, he already had a runner in scoring position, and he didn’t really need the second runner in scoring position, too. He felt with three seniors at the plate, he liked his chances that one of them would get a base hit.
Having watched this Kailua team swing the bat, I can see his reasoning.
Also, Ishigo said, if he sacrificed, Pearl City likely would have walked the next batter to load the bases and set up the double play, plus the force play at home. That next batter was intentionally walked in his previous at-bat.
After listening to Ishigo’s explanation, to me the call wasn’t as easy to make as it first appeared. I can see why he made his decision. And, however briefly, he did consider calling the sacrifice.
“It crossed my mind,” he said.
Chargers coach Gary Nakamoto said he thought the sacrifice was coming and was surprised it didn’t. I think a lot of people were.
But if just one of those next three batters had gotten a hit, the run probably would have scored and we’d be talking about Kailua’s victory instead. And who is to say the sacrifice would have been executed? At the high school level, it’s certainly not automatic.
If the bunt was popped up, or hit straight back to the pitcher to force out the lead runner, then people might have second-guessed why Ishigo took the bat out of a senior’s hands and did not let him swing away.
But that’s all part of what makes baseball interesting. So many different plays, different situations, can help determine the outcome of the game.
April 29th, 2008 at 7:58 am
Kailua plays real baseball not this weak take one hope to walk stuff. Yes P.C won the OIA but they have a weak approach at the plate they look to walk rather then hit it over the fence. It is no surprise that no senior has any offers for college with a talent filled class. No college or pro scout wants to see you walk. I seen P.C play against Aiea facing Castillo the first few innings the just stood there not even wanting to swing, Except Tanaba he swings it every time. Castillo just came back from being out sick for a week that was there time to hit him hard (6 weak hits) but instead they prayed the umpire would call balls which he did and a lot of them should of been strikes. PC very good high school baseball team and hope that is not the same with the players I hope the players dreams is not just to when in high school level. Coaches must think bigger, like Kailua didn’t bunt to move um up try to bang it with three big hitters and seniors that is how to really help these high school players for the next level. Hawaii is already at a disadvantage for baseball scouts coming over if it wasn’t for Antolin and Castillo throwing 90’s hardly any will be here and when they come batters taking 1 and not even daring to swing at anything close. Remember last year one drafted out of high school. PC was more impressive with last years approach. It will be hard to win in states against all the ILH teams with this weak approach. (SWING IT)
April 29th, 2008 at 8:29 am
Ahh the game of baseball where every spectator becomes a coach and second guesses every decision made by the coach especially AFTER the decision doesn’t work. Believe me it’s a little different when you are on the field making these decisions and you know every decision you make is going to be scrutinized by everyone. Me personally I would have bunted, many more ways to score from third than second. Coach Ishigo has a lot of confidence in his team’s hitting and rightfully so, look at those averages but as the saying goes good pitching stops good hitting. Neal started off slow but got stronger as the game went on, very gutty performance. Would have took him out earlier and started the 8th inning with Nakamura rather than bring him in from left. Nakamura is a pitcher, very efficient hits his spots. He needed only 42 pitches to finish off Roosevelt. That’s my try at being a sideline coach, but despite all the errors a well played and well coached game. Tough decisions for coaches, clutch plays and hitting by the players, what else would you want in a championship game. Never seen so many courtesy/pinch runners in my life. Good thing both teams have big squads or were they picking these players out of the stands.
April 29th, 2008 at 9:41 am
With no outs I would have sacrificed. Sure the batter could have made a bad bunt but you’d still have the potential winning run on 2nd.
If the bunt was successful then with a runner on 3rd there are more ways for that runner to score (hit, wild pitch, pass ball, balk, sac fly, error, etc.)
But that’s just me.
Ishigo made the call he thought was right. My hats off to him for having trust in his seniors.
Good game…
April 29th, 2008 at 9:43 am
My previous comment is awaiting moderation? Why is that?
April 29th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
Statistically (computed from major league games, though), your odds of scoring at least one run are better with a runner on second and one out than a runner on first with no out. So the percentages, based on these statistics, would be the sacrifice because Kailua only needed one run to win.
On average, though, you score more runs with a runner on first and no out than with a runner on second and one out. So early in the game, when you don’t know how many runs you need to win the game, you don’t sacrifice.
You could also try the outright steal, hoping for a man on second with no out at the risk of no runners on base with one out. The steal must be successful nearly 75% of the time to make this gamble worth taking–and I don’t know the characteristics of the runner, pitcher, catcher, and field to sense whether the odds would be worthwhile.
April 29th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
I honestly thought that Ishigo would give DeMarsh 1 strike to take a rip at the ball and then sac bunt. What I couldn’t figure out is that there was an exact situation in the 5th inning in which DeMarsh sac bunted and Kailua got a run out of it to pull ahead 5-3. Why do it in the 5th inning and not the 7th? Pearl City walked the hitter ahead of DeMarsh in the 5th.
April 29th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
Homey, and others,
As you probably noticed by now, with our new format comments do not instantaneously get posted like before. Each one must be first read and approved, either by me or another authorized staff member, before being posted.
Unfortunately, we do not monitor the blog 24/7, so the comments sometimes do not get posted for hours.
For this change, you can thank all the no-class, no-sense-of-aloha jerks (like the anonymous guy who made countless personal attacks on me and others) who littered this blog with trash talk for months.
Because those people showed no respect for me, you and all the other readers, we cannot trust the public to behave and follow the ground rules and now we all must wait for comments to be posted.
It is another sad case of a few rotten apples spoiling it for the whole bunch. But the good news is, the blog will be cleaner and have less (none?) of the rude, disrespectful trash talk that spouted from those rotten apples.
I apologize it has come to this and that you must wait for your comments to be posted. I hope you can be patient with us and continue to participate.
Mahalo for reading.
April 29th, 2008 at 2:21 pm
Wes - Thanks for the explanation. I haven’t kept up with your blog so I didn’t know what transpired before hand.
Bill - In this case, Kailua had runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs.
Can’t wait for the State’s to start. Gotta see what the neighbor Island boy’s bring to the table.
Good luck to all!
April 29th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
Since when isn’t “walking” part of the game? This isn’t slowpitch softball where every pitch you can at least put the bat on the ball. Give me a break, PC played the way they were supposed to play, smart baseball. You mean to tell me that the PC players were supposed to be swinging at every pitch thrown their way? Championship game is on the line, so who wouldn’t want the free pass? Basic fundamentals my friend. Bottom line, PC won. Maybe if Kailua didn’t swing at bad pitches, maybe the outcome would have been different.
April 30th, 2008 at 6:48 am
Yes, I know the situation was first and second, none out. I don’t recall what the odds would show in that situation. I’m sure that your probabilities of scoring at least one run is better with runners on second and third and one out (assuming a successful sacrifice) than runners on first and second, one out (because of a force out at third or another sort of unsuccessful sacrifice). Not sure how much runners on third and second, none out (a successful double steal) improves the situation or even a runner on third, one out (an attempted double steal with the runner originally at first thrown out).
And of course, you always need to adjust to the pitcher, the runners, the batter, the field conditions…
April 30th, 2008 at 9:24 am
well i think they should have bunted. that would have put more pressure on us. if the bunt was made would have been second and third one out. the infield would play up the outfield would have moved up to make sure we would have a throw at home because we were playing deep all game the wind was blowing out so the ball was carrying. anything could have happend. but if the bunt didnt work you stil lwouldve been in the same situation second and first one out. but coach ishigo had the confindence in his players to come through with the hit. if i was one of his players i would be proud cause atleast you know your coach believes in you and gave you that chance to hit.
with the walking thing we go up there looking to hit our pitch not the pitchers pitch. when im pitching im hoping you swing at my pitch cause your just getting yourself out and just helping out the pitcher. Beamer is right about the fundamentals if your going to get a free pass why not take it. more baserunner = more chances to score.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:12 am
If Kailua is all about banging the ball according to Mark, why did they take Taleasea out? Another tough decision Coach Ishigo had to deal with. Don’t know what I would have done. Beamer is right you (Mark) have a slow pitch softball mentality. Any good coach will tell you a good baseball team starts with good pitching and defense.
April 30th, 2008 at 11:08 am
It was a great OIA title game that could have easily gone either way but what it also does is set up an exciting State Tourney. Yes the ILH teams are loaded and with three spots secured by the best the ILH has to offer there could be some titan battles by the OIA and Neighbor Island teams to prevent an all ILH state final. I don’t care who you are if you have to face Castle and Pulama Silva or Aiea and Castillo in the first round good luck. Everybody will throw their ACE and some of these guys will be tough to beat. Having seen the Maui and Big Island boys in youth tourneys there will be some surprised fans when they see the size and skill level these teams bring. The talent level of this senior class is pretty special and I hope the papers and TV guys give them the exposure they deserve. Thanks Wes.
April 30th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
Harold,
Removing Talaesea from the game was another interesting situation, but again I can’t blame Ishigo for the decision. That baserunner was important, and if Kailua won the game in that inning, there would have been no need to have Talaesea in the lineup afterward anyway.
I think he had to play to win the game in that inning, not worry about Talaesea coming to bat in the next inning. And the pinch-hitter for Talaesea, Jared Tamanaha, ended up getting a single to right field anyway.
That being said, it sure would have been interesting if Talaesea did get to bat in the eighth. Talk about high drama on every pitch …
Mahalo for reading.
April 30th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
Bill - I just thought you would have the MLB stats for scoring with the situation Kailua had. It’s interesting the stats they keep for almost every situation. Thanks for the info.
April 30th, 2008 at 5:46 pm
Harold and Beamer,
Slow pitch Mentality? WHAT!!! I said plate approach. Going up with I want to hit rather then please throw balls. Taking a good swing at it, rather then just make contact. I watched P.C Players very close this year and they won’t be afraid to tell you that they are a taking team. Good at high school maybe good at getting noticed I don’t think so. I didn’t say swing at anything but if want to hit, you well swing at anything close not watch it zip by and look quickly at the ump.
April 30th, 2008 at 8:27 pm
Earlier in the game Cory did bunt in that situation. Then Pearl City walked Jordan Limahai to load the bases. Rob and Jordan are two important hitters in the Kailua order. Cory wanted to give his seniors a chance. It was a tough loss, but I am glad the coach has confidence in his seniors. Hitters love to swing the bat, they’ll get another chance to do so soon.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
You roll the dice, you win or lose. Maybe next time you bunt. Props to Coach Ishigo, he went with his strength - hitting. Could be Kailua not to good with the bunt?
We’ll never know, but maybe during the States?
Gotta wait.
May 1st, 2008 at 10:15 am
Mark,
Tell me this, what “good” hitters go up to the plate TRYING to hit a homerun? They’ll all tell you they just try to make contact. You stated that the PC players have a weak approach at the plate, that they look to walk rather than “hit it over the fence”. I don’t know what kind of baseball game you play but when you’re facing a pretty decent team like Kailua or Aiea, winning the game should be the #1 priority. Any good coach will tell their team to be patient at the plate, to look for their pitch. If the guy isn’t throwing strikes, why swing? Antoline walked 7 batters against PC and that’s why they didn’t make the playoffs. Ask anybody and they’ll tell you that they’d take 7 BB’s and win instead of 2 BB’s and lose. Baseball is a TEAM sport. It’s not about your ego.
You’re bagging on these PC kids because they do the little things to win a game, not play guerrilla ball. These PC players know their role. They know they’re not a power hitting bunch of guys who will or will not play Div 1 baseball. But you know what, that’s what makes them successful.
May 1st, 2008 at 5:00 pm
The best part about baseball is that there are may ways to play the game. Great hitters get that way by swinging the bat. When they come to the park all they want to do is hit. I am glad Cory gives them the opportunity. The Kailua team has been taught the basics like bunting and are able to execute when called upon as Rob DeMarsh did earlier in the game. The Kailua kids expect to hit because they are taught how. They know thier coach believes in them and he shows his faith in their ability when he doesn’t make them bunt. Pearl City is much more than a team that waits for walks. I’ve seen teams like that who’s only chance to get on base is to hope for balls. The Chargers have some very talented hitters Namba, Nakamura and Tanabe could carry this team all the way through states.
May 1st, 2008 at 9:08 pm
Beamer,
EVERY GOOD HITTER tries to rip it!! Just make contact???? What are you an under 6 tee ball coach? What kind baseball against a good team Aiea, Kailua? Rip it to show your talent against the best. Antolin walked 7 but it was deep counts and they still didn’t swing. LOOKING FOR WALKS! Weak plate approach in front of tons of major league scouts according to Pal. Successful for high school level correct like I first said.
May 2nd, 2008 at 7:01 am
I would have bunted. The kid Demarsh had 2 WEAK ABs prior to his 7th inning K (weak swings, swinging at stuff out of the zone). The kid’s confidence looked shot, but Ishigo went with what brought them to the dance. Kailua is a hitting team anyway.
@mark: PC has ALWAYS been a small ball team, from way back in the 70s. Asking them to swing out of thier a$$es is like asking the Phoenix Suns to play defense. If you really want to see gorilla ball, check out the Waipahu Sr. AJA team. I think the last time they bunted was when Ariyoshi was governor.
May 2nd, 2008 at 8:28 am
Mark,
Slow pitch softball mentality like we said. If you are swinging for the fences just to impress the scouts, then your playing for the wrong reason. Take up an individual sport (tennis or golf). The chances of these kids being drafted are slim to none. Like you said only one high school player (Ridge Carpenter) drafted last year and he opted to go to school instead of signing. Even if you are drafted the chances of making it to the majors again are slim to none. Too many parents have dreams of their kids getting scholarships or drafted, they lose focus that baseball is a team sport. They think high school baseball is a place to showcase their kid. Believe me if your kid is good enough to be drafted or earn a scholarship, scouts or coaches will find them. They know most of the better players already and they actually work out with Lenn Sakata during the off season.
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:26 am
Mark,
I’ve played with former college players, guys like Ishigo for the matter of fact, even current minor league players and when they all hit a homerun, I ask them, “do you try to hit it out of the park?”. They all said that they just tried TO MAKE CONTACT, drive the ball somewhere. If it goes out, it goes out. I’m not saying to play pepper. Looking to “dive” the ball is different from looking to “hit it out of the park.” You’re telling me Coach Nakamoto should tell his boys before they go up to the plate to hit the ball out of the park? But there you go again, talking about individual stats over the overall picture, WINNING THE GAME! Just like Dunn said in a previous blog, none of his players are selfish, that’s what makes this years team so special. I’ve seen numerous times this year when their leadoff hitter, Doi, reached base with a walk, then later score in that same inning only to end up WINNING by a run or two.
Obviously you have something against the PC players or don’t know jack about baseball. Baseball isn’t golf, it isn’t tennis, it’s a TEAM sport. Every player will do their best to help the TEAM win a game, whatever it takes. Obviously you don’t think that way so obviously you’ve never won before.
May 2nd, 2008 at 6:16 pm
Harold,
A lot of your info are you sure it’s true? Carpenter opted to go to college? Wasn’t he drafted before cross checker evaluated him then when they did no offers came in so he was forced to go to college? What are you talking about Lenn working out with prospects during off-season are you sure or what you heard? Please don’t tell me about pro scouts or how the process works I’m pretty knowledgeable of this. Swing for the fence I never used that phrase! Weak plate approach rather walk then to rip one, Having a strong mental plan when going up to the plate sounds like you don’t understand.
Beamer,
You played with FORMER College players? Ha what do you play AJA and sounds like it and proud of it. Been there and much further. Why do you always drop people names or say ask this person that kind of person who has to ask someone or drop names is a person who never made it on his own. Sound familiar! I never said go up there and try to hit it over the fence, plate approach I guess out of you league. I don’t no jack! I don’t know what you know namedropper and ask this person. Never won before ignorance saying that when don’t even know me trust me hardly lost is more accurate played in a baseball rich community. Never said anything bad about Pearl City players I think Namba and Nakamura has a chance. But hard for people to see that if they have a weak plate approach and look to walk.
Beamer and Harold it has been fun but must move on with other bogs.
May 2nd, 2008 at 8:17 pm
It’s hard to reply to the comments of Pearl City players looking to walk because I don’t know your level of understanding of the game. Players who look to walk, thus jeopardizing college scholarships or pro offers? I have coached several of those Pearl City boys and have seen their development over the years. Hitting is so difficult that these kids’ development has taken years. One of the keys to being a good consistent hitter is pitch selection. It took me years of working with one of the players for him to understand that most times, the pitcher wasn’t getting him out, he was getting himself out. This understanding has made him a much better hitter. Many times, hitters get themselves out on a pitcher’s pitch. For example, outside low on the 1st pitch of an at bat or inside high pitch are pitcher’s pitches that the batter should not be swinging at. All smart hitters should have some kind of approach when they are hitting. If they start swinging at pitches a little outside of their “zone” (even strikes), then they will start geting themselves out. Pitchers love hitters who expand their zone when they don’t have to. I know these PC kids pretty well and they love to hit. They would rather hit and get their name in the paper with two hits rather than two walks. They hate to walk, but they do what is best for their team.
May 3rd, 2008 at 12:35 am
Mark,
Every hitter has an approach when they go up to the plate. If they know the umpire is tight, then why not do YOUR job as a team member and get on base. You said there were 3 good senior hitters up. Bunt the 2 runners up, and rely on the other 2 for hits. Taking is not a “weak” strategy. In college, if you are down in the last inning, every batter looks to take one until the hitter can tie it up with one swing. Is that “weak”? Prepare for the next level? How many freshmen you know are actually successful off the bat? If you go to college thinking you can “rip” every pitcher, you are in for a huge reality check. I agree with Beamer. A good approach is smart baseball. A college scout would have a difficult time not looking at a batter with a .600 on base percentage. He must be doing something right?
May 5th, 2008 at 8:22 pm
What we are talking about is ONE run to win the game. Not a 5 run rally. ONE run! Kailua should have bunted. Basic baseball. If Ishigo did that in the pro’s, he would be fired at the end of the season.
May 6th, 2008 at 5:59 am
First off, Ishigo took his team to 7of the last 9 OIA championships games, where he won 5 of them I believe. He got there not by major talent but by playing aggressive and taking big risks. Pumps, You coached some of the PC kids and “YOU” taught one of this kids about pitch selection and what’s a good pitch to hit. Who said that low and outside is a pitchers pitch. That is such a OIA mentality, you can bet the barn that in the OIA, pitchers will throw outside all day. Anygood hitter who knows that will attack that pitch and hit it hard. A pitchers pitch is a pitch that fools the batter and a pitch that he doesn’t expect. Good points Mark.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
I think that coach Ishigo knows his players better than all of us. He evaluated the situation and made a decision. We don’t have a clue what goes on at practice, what are his players strenghts or weaknesses. I think that coach Ishigo made the choice he thought was best for his team. His decision to hit away didn’t go his way and he took responsibility for his decision. Good job coach!
May 9th, 2008 at 3:52 am
All you folks who call yourself experts and that you might have coached them in little league or what not… To me it doesn’t it matter… I know that you could not coach them as well as Coach Ishigo because if you could, you would not be second guessing him cause a true player knows that Corey knows his baseball… Pearl City has very good baseball players who grew up in a baseball community… Corey coaches very good athletes and makes them become baseball players…The one that compalins is usually the one who never played the game or couldn’t make the team… And i’m sure that everyone that knows Corey, would agree… GOOD JOB Coach ISHIGO!!!